Uncertainty quantification (UQ)
Definition
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the practice of measuring how uncertain a simulation or model prediction is, and why. It traces how variations in inputs, physical parameters and the model itself change the result. In engineering simulation, UQ tells a team how far to trust a prediction before it informs a design decision.
Example
An AI surrogate is asked about a wing shape unlike anything in its training data. Its uncertainty estimate comes back high, so the engineer sends that design to the CFD solver instead of trusting the prediction. Scatter in operating conditions is the other kind of uncertainty: more data won't remove it, so the design has to allow for it.
Sources
- ASME, "Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ)," asme.org
- Der Kiureghian, Ditlevsen, "Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?," Structural Safety, 2009, orbit.dtu.dk